未来智讯 > 无人驾驶论文 > 无人驾驶司机,再见

无人驾驶司机,再见

发布时间:2018-11-28 01:06:01 文章来源:未来智讯    
    无人驾驶:司机,再见作者:未知   如果你还认为无人驾驶汽车只存在于科幻小说和电影里,那你就out啦!早在五年前,无人驾驶汽车就已在美国加州上路了。你觉得由机器抑制不靠谱,没人操控不平安?别担心,种种研讨和汇报皆已证明:有了无人驾驶汽车,我们的未来会更好。
  The companies developing self-driving cars say handing control over to the machines will make the future a far better place. Once robot chauffeurs1) are here, they say, the number of car crashes will plummet. Liberated from the need to keep our hands on the wheel and eyes on the road, drivers will become riders with more time for working, leisure, and staying in touch with loved ones. We’ll free ourselves from the archaic model of the multi-car household. And we won’t waste so much space parking the damn things.
  Even the NHTSA2), hardly a starry-eyed3) cheerleader for technological progress, says the advent of vehicles that drive themselves will provide “completely new possibilities for improving highway safety, increasing environmental benefits, expanding mobility, and creating new economic opportunities for jobs and investment.”
  The idyllic picture painted by automakers and regulators may sound overblown, but a new report from consulting firm McKinsey & Company4) says it is, for the most part, accurate.
  Automakers expect to introduce autonomous technology in phases, rolling out5) the cool new features in otherwise conventional cars. In three to five years, we can expect cars to do the heavy lifting6) during traffic jams and highway cruising, but cede7) control to their carbon-based occupants the rest of the time. Beyond that comes the more difficult challenge of driving in urban arenas, where there are far more obstacles and variables, like pedestrians, cyclists, cabbies and the like. That’s a tougher nut to crack8), but our cars will become increasingly autonomous over the next 25 years, and we can expect them to be fully autonomous by 2040.
  We’re already well on the way. Google’s fleet9) of self-driving cars has logged more than 700,000 miles without causing an accident. Audi let me pilot its sleek10) prototype from Silicon Valley to Las Vegas earlier this year. And just last week, the bonkers11) Mercedes-Benz robo-car concept was roaming San Francisco.
  The McKinsey report, based on research by McKinsey analysts and interviews with industry experts, buys into12) this idea of gradual introduction, and divides its findings in three phases. In the first, which runs through 2020 or so, the impact of autonomous technology will be limited: While self-driving vehicles already have infiltrated industrial and controlled settings like farms and mines, passenger vehicles will remain in the prototype and testing phase. This jibes with13) the timelines laid out by the companies like Mercedes and Nissan, which plan to offer cars with autonomous features by 2020. Audi’s shooting for roughly the same date, and Volvo is targeting 2017 for a large-scale, real-world test involving 100 customers.   The technology will experience growing pains between 2020 and 2035 as the technology begins entering the mainstream. This will require regulators around the world to create comprehensive rules regarding how these cars are developed, tested, approved and licensed. Insurance companies will need to figure out how to change their basic model―drivers pay for individual coverage―to a system where automakers purchase insurance in case of technical failures. Wider adoption of the technology could have ancillary14) impacts, as well. Independent repair shops will become less relevant, for example, as remote diagnostics and over-the-air updates become commonplace, and fewer accidents―one promised benefit of autonomous technology―could mean fewer repairs. Cabbies and Uber15) drivers will become irrelevant. So too could long-haul16) truckers.
  Meanwhile, consumers will start to really get accustomed to the idea of giving up the wheel, and they’ll probably like it. Safety benefits should come quickly, as precursors to full autonomy have already had an impact: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety17) (IIHS) reports a 7 percent reduction in crashes among cars that have a basic forward-collision warning system. Include automatic braking features, and that number is 14 to 15 percent, according to Consumer Reports. More self-driving will mean bigger reductions, which is why autonomous features are a big part of Volvo’s plan to eliminate deaths and serious injuries in its cars by 2020.
  And given how much time Americans waste in traffic―111 hours annually per driver, per a study by INRIX18)―that means anyone with one of these cars will be able to significantly boost their productivity.
  But it’s in Phase 3, after 2040, that the fun begins. This is the point where autonomous cars become our primary means of transport, and all the rules are up for debate. Just as car design will fundamentally change once things like forward-facing seats, mirrors, and pedals are no longer necessary, the way we structure physical space could evolve: McKinsey predicts that by 2050, we might need just 75 percent of the space we now reserve for parking our cars. Because this is America, that means we get back 5.7 billion square meters of space―enough to hold the Grand Canyon and then some. That’s because autonomous cars can pack themselves together tightly (no need to allow space for humans to exit).
  More than that though, our entire idea of car ownership could change. Currently, cars sit unused about 95 percent of the time. That leaves a lot of room for improvement in terms of how we allocate resources.   We won’t stop buying cars altogether―people will still want the option to independently drive and use the vehicle, and have fun doing so―but we will buy fewer cars. Without the need for a human at the helm19), one autonomous vehicle could take the place of two conventional vehicles: If Joan is going golfing and Joe needs to go shopping, a single car could drop Joan off at the club, swing back to the house to take Joe to the supermarket and back, then return to the club and get Joan.
  The recurring theme in the McKinsey report is that the consumer wins. Yes, cars crammed full of high-end technology will likely cost several thousand dollars more than they do today. But “drivers” will save money in the form of regained time (spend your commute working instead of driving!) and many fewer accidents: McKinsey pegs20) the savings on repair and health care bills alone at $180 billion in the US, predicting a 90 percent drop in crashes.
  The economic boon21) from increased productivity is harder to quantify and McKinsey doesn’t offer a number. After all, there’s no guarantee people will use their commute times to work instead of nap, text, or hone their Candy Crush22) skills. But the general outlook is clear: In a world where we don’t drive, we’re better off.
  正在研发无人驾驶汽车的公司称,把抑制权交给机器,会使未来的世界更美好。这些公司声称,机器人司机一旦就位,车祸的数量将直线降落。驾驶员无需再手握方向盘,也不用眼睛盯着路面,他们将形成乘客,有更多的时间来事务、放松、与亲朋挚友保持联系。我们将打破一个家庭拥有多台车的旧模式,也不会再浪费那么多的地方来停放这些破东西。
  美国国家公路交通平安管理局很少对科技进步持过分乐观的支持立场。可就连他们都说,自动驾驶汽车的出现将提供“全新的可能性,有助于提高公路交通的平安性,增加环境效益,增强流动性,为就业和投资提供新的经济机会”。
  由汽车制造商和监管机构勾勒出的这种田园般的愿景听起来似乎言过其实,但麦肯锡咨询公司发布的一份新汇报称,这种说法大体来说是正确的。
  汽车制造商想要分阶段引入自动驾驶技能,先在传统汽车上配置炫酷的新功能。在未来的三到五年,汽车有望在交通拥堵时自动完成麻烦的事务,并在公路上缓慢平稳行驶。但在其他时候,操控权还是要交给车上那些活生生的乘客。除此之外,还有在市区行驶这一更大的挑战。市区里有更多的障碍,还有行人、骑车人、出租车等更多不确定因素。这才是一个更难解决的问题。只是,在未来的25年中,汽车将变得越来越自动化,并有望在2040年实现全自动抑制。
  我们已经取得了不错的进展。google的无人驾驶汽车车队已经有了行驶70余万英里无事故的记录。今年早些时候,我试驾了奥迪的流线型原型车,从硅谷开到了拉斯维加斯。就在上周(编注:英文原文发表于2015年3月),梅赛德斯-奔驰那款疯狂的自动驾驶观念车还在旧金山疾驰。
  麦肯锡的汇报是根据其分析人员的研讨和对业内专家的采访写成的。该汇报认可这种逐渐引入的思维,并将其调查结果分为三个阶段。第一阶段从如今起初到2020年左右,自动驾驶技能的影响力还十分有限。虽然无人驾驶汽车已经进入工业和受控的环境,如农场和矿山,但乘用车仍将处于原型车和测试阶段。这与梅赛德斯和尼桑等公司设定的时间表一致。这两家公司打算于2020年前推出配有自动驾驶功能的汽车。奥迪也瞄准了大致相同的日期。而沃尔沃公司的指标是,在2017年组织一次由100位客户参加的大规模的、真实环境中的试驾。
  2020至2035年,自动驾驶技能将履历成长的阵痛,因为此时该技能起初成为主流。这就需要世界各地的监管机构制定全面的制度,对无人驾驶汽车如何研发、测试、获批及发放许可证进行监管。保险公司需要想好如何改变他们的基本经营模式。之前是司机给个人投保,以后则要由汽车制造商购买保险,以防出现技能故障。该技能的更广泛应用还可能产生一些附带的影响。比如,由于远程诊断和在线升级越来越普遍,事故越来越少(这是自动驾驶技能承诺的好处之一),维修也可能削减,所以独立汽修店将变得无关紧要。出租车司机和“优步”公司的驾驶员也不再重要,长途卡车司机可能也不例外。   与此同时,消费者将起初真正适应并很可能喜欢上这种放弃方向盘的感觉。很快,平安效益将随之显现,全自动驾驶技能的先驱已经显示出了效果:美国公路平安保险协会的汇报证明,装有基础版前方碰撞预警系统的车辆失事故的概率降低了7%。根据《消费者汇报》,如果将装有自动制动装置的车辆也算在内,这一数字是14%到15%。汽车越自动,事故率降落得就越多,这恰是沃尔沃公司把自动驾驶功能作为其打算中的一个重要局部的原因。该公司打算,截至2020年,乘坐他们的汽车将不再有死亡和重伤出现。
  美国人在交通上浪费了大量的时间。英雷克斯公司的一项研讨显示,每位美国驾驶员一年浪费在交通上的时间达111个小时。因此,一个人只要拥有上述任何一辆自动驾驶汽车,就能大幅提高其事务效率。
  2040年以后将进入第三阶段,这时自动驾驶技能才能带来乐趣。届时,无人驾驶汽车成为人们主要的交通工具,所有的交通准则也都可供商榷。一旦前朝向座椅、后视镜和踏板不再是非有不可的配置,那么汽车设计也会发生根本变化。这样一来,我们对物理空间的设计也会改变:麦肯锡公司预计,到2050年,我们需要的停车空间可能不过如今空间的75%。因为我们说的是美国,这就意味着我们能够节约出57亿平方米的空间――足以容纳整个科罗拉多大峡谷,还绰绰有余。这是因为自动驾驶汽车能够紧密地停靠在一同,无需留出供人下车的空间。
  只是,还不止于此。我们拥有汽车的想法可能会彻底改变。目前,在大约95%的时间里,汽车都处于闲置状态。这为我们分配资源留下了很大的提升空间。
  总的来说,我们还是会去买车。人们还是想有选择的权利,能自己驾驶和使用汽车,并从中得到乐趣。只是,我们购买汽车的数量会比从前少。由于无需人来掌舵,一辆自动驾驶汽车能够替代两辆传统汽车:如果琼要去打高尔夫球,而乔需要购物,一辆自动驾驶汽车就能先把琼送去俱乐部,再回家把乔送到超市,然后再返回俱乐部接琼。
  麦肯锡的汇报重复提到的一点是,消费者是赢家。当然,装满了高端技能组件的汽车很可能会比如今的汽车贵好几千美元。然而,“驾驶员”也省了钱,因为节省了时间(上下班途中能够事务,不用开车!),事故也削减了。麦肯锡公司预计,交通事故将削减90%,仅是省下的维修费和医疗费就将达1800亿美元。
  由生产力提高所带来的经济效益更难量化,麦肯锡公司也没有提供确切的数字。毕竟,我们无法保证人们会把通勤时节约出来的时间花在事务上,而不是小憩、发短信或是提高玩手机游戏《糖果粉碎传奇》的技能上。只是,总体前景是明朗的:在一个无需自己驾车的世界里,我们会过得更好。
  1. chauffeur [????f?(r)] n. 私人司机
  2. NHTSA:美国国家公路交通平安管理局(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)
  3. starry-eyed:过分乐观的;不切实际的
  4. McKinsey & Company:麦肯锡公司,世界领先的全球管理咨询公司
  5. roll out:推出(新产品)
  6. heavy lifting:(需要花费很多力气的)繁重事务
  7. cede [si?d] vt. (常指迫不得已地)让出
  8. a tough nut to crack:难以解决的问题
  9. fleet [fli?t] n. 车队
  10. sleek [sli?k] adj. (车辆等)外形流畅雅致的
  11. bonkers [?b??k?(r)z] adj. 疯狂的
  12. buy into:相信;接受
  13. jibe with:相一致;适合
  14. ancillary [?n?s?l?ri] adj. 附属的;附带的
  15. Uber:美国一家交通网络公司,总部位于旧金山,提供实时预订出租车和私家车服务。目前Uber已进入中国市场,中文译名为“优步”。
  16. long-haul:长途的
  17. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety:美国公路平安保险协会
  18. INRIX:英雷克斯,美国一家交通讯息服务提供商,能为用户提供实时车辆交通数据。
  19. helm [helm] n. 领导位置
  20. peg [pe��] vt. 限定(价格、数量等)
  21. boon [bu?n] n. 恩惠;福利
  22. Candy Crush:《糖果粉碎传奇》,一款风靡全球的消除类手机游戏
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